And by pinch we mean vice grip: one estimate places the “doomsday scenario” losses at $35 billion USD worldwide.
Right now, there are two main ways to tackle the issue of ad blockers. These popular counter-ad-blocking measures are what a new study, authored by scholars at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, refers to as “tough” and “soft.”
The “tough” strategy to combat ad blockers is also known as the “whitelist-or-leave” or “Wall” strategy. This involves a publisher website notifying ad blocking users that they need to either a) disable their ad blockers and whitelist the page or—and this is where the “whitelist-or-leave” moniker makes sense— b) the ad blocking user is forbidden from accessing the page.
And the “soft” strategy? To quote “To Be Tough Or Soft: Measuring The Impact of Counter-Ad-Blocking Strategies on User Engagement,” this involves:
“[…] show[ing] users acceptable ads, agreed upon with the ad blocking companies, which appear in the page even when an ad blocker is active. Acceptable ads are generally less annoying ads, such as text ads instead of video ads, and also fewer in number.”
But how do the tough and soft counter-ad blocking measures impact user behaviors? This is exactly what the scholars at NJIT, with the cooperation of Forbes Media, set out to observe.
“A Randomized Field Experiment”
This study is a first: although there have been other studies looking at the phenomenon of ad blocking, academic work has looked primarily on how to counter ad blockers, rather than the effect of countering ad blocking on the users themselves. The lone study that peered into the effects on ad blocking users weighed to the benefits of the “whitelist or leave” measures against…going ad free.
And that option is utopian, but hardly realistic.
So the trio of New Jersey Institute of Technology-based scholars (Shuai Zhao, Christian Borcea, and Yi Chen), along with Achir Kalra of Forbes Media set out to answer the following questions:
- What are the overall effects of the “soft” strategy compared to the “tough” or “Wall” strategy? And what happens if the user decides to comply with the “tough/Wall” strategy and whitelist?
- What happens when the user groups have different characteristics?
- What are the long-term and short-term effects of the “tough” or “Wall” strategy?
The results create a composite that’s a useful, illuminating look into both counter- ad blocking strategies and the psychology of ad blocking users.
A Question of Overall Engagement
The study, which contained a dataset with 40,000 ad blocking users, varied across traffic, operating system, geographic area and other factors, led to one significant conclusion:
“Our study shows that the Wall strategy has an overall negative impact on user engagements.”
The “overall negative impact” is qualified, however. It’s true that extraordinarily loyal, highly engaged users aren’t as impacted by the Wall strategy because, in general, these users do whatever it takes to view page content. This is why the study goes on to say “we do not recommend the Wall [white-listing] strategy to publishers unless they have a large portion of loyal users.”
Which leads to another problem: very few publishers that have that “large portion of loyal users.” In fact, it’s a rarity.
Different Characteristics; Different Results
Unless the user base of the publisher is extraordinarily highly-engaged, and the content provided is unique and highly sticky, a publisher generally won’t get the kind of users that the New Jersey institute of Technology and Forbes deem sufficiency loyal.
According to “To Be Tough or Soft,”
“For low-engaged users, the Wall strategy has a large negative effect on pageviews […] since the majority of users are low-engaged users, the revenue of the publisher is expected to suffer a lot when using the Wall strategy.”
And it’s matter of reality that most publishers attract users that fall into the category of low-engagement<: the exact kind of users that the time-consuming process of whitelisting process works to deter.
And what about “middle-engaged users”? It turns out that they’re also deterred by the Wall strategy…not so much by the labor-intensive process of white listing, but by the presence of annoying ads after the white-listing process is complete.
(These annoying ads are notably absence from the “acceptable ads” experience. This is because the criteria that determine whether an ad is “acceptable,” as set forth by the independent Acceptable Ads Committee, are designed to make sure ads are “respectful, nonintrusive, and relevant.”)
Long-Term Vs. Short Term
If the deterrence of low-engagement users is significant in the short term, it becomes even more striking over a period of time. According to the study,
Quantitatively, we find that the Wall strategy causes a 20.5% increase of the visit duration gap. The reason is probably that the ad-blocker users feel disturbed when facing the Wall strategy, and they are less willing to come back.
Although loyal users faced with the Wall strategy are “likelier to whitelist gradually over time,” it becomes apparent that “the ad-blocker users who refuse to whitelist previously would probably not come back.”
In other words, the silence left in the wake of ad blocking user abandonment when faced with a whitelisting solution grows even more deafening over time…unless you’re one of the slim percentage of publishers to attract the kind of loyalty that can withstand an “all or nothing” Wall approach.
The Way Forward
For publishers that make up the percentage of the population that can honestly claim to have the kind of super-loyalty and tremendously sticky content that would motivate users to navigate a Wall strategy; if you’re not a member of this (small) club, a Wall strategy is going to create additional work.
Publishers will be forced to ponder the following question, posed in the final “Discussions” section of “To Be Tough Or Soft: Measuring The Impact of Counter-Ad-Blocking Strategies on User Engagement:”
If a publisher indeed wants to adopt the Wall strategy, the problem is how to convert casual users to high-engaged users, since casual users are more likely to leave forever when facing the Wall strategy.
There were no such questions, and no sort of additional problems, that arose in response “soft” solution created by the acceptable ads strategy. Low-engaged and medium-engaged users alike—the vast majority of ad blocking users across the globe—fare better with acceptable ads. These users are neither deterred by the labor-intensive process of white-listing or the intrusive ads that show up after the white-listing process.
So: to be tough, or to be soft? It turns out that a softer option is broadly effective, and that success via the “tough” white-listing strategy is…significantly tougher.